Economic and Demographic Update

Population: The population in Cincinnati in the 2Q of 2021 was 2,205,457. This represents a decrease in total population of 2,001 over the course of the last year. During 2020 Q2, the Cincinnati population stood at 2,207,458. The number of people employed rose to 1,083,154 in 2021 Q2 from 1,072,137 over the last quarter, an increase of 11,017 or 1.03% for the period.

Median Income: The median household income for Cincinnati in the 2Q of 2021 was $74,579. At this time last year, the median household income was $69,751. 2021 Q2 median income represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.43% and a year-over-year increase of 6.92%. Cincinnati has a median household income greater than the U.S. average, which is $73,652.

Current and Historical Data Review (Rates PSF, Vacancy)

Office leasing: Overall office base rent rates have decreased by $0.08/SF. Rates went from $14.22/SF in 2021 Q1 to $14.14/SF in this most recent quarter. Office rates grew in 2021 Q2 when compared to last year’s quarter, when office base rent was $13.93/SF.

Vacancy rates grew from 9.90% to 10.00%. They stood at 9.00% this time last year. During that same period, the vacancy rate is expected to remain the same next quarter at 10.00%.

In the Cincinnati market’s central business district (CBD) specifically, 2021 Q2 base rents stood at $20.64/SF, an increase from $20.57/SF in 2021 Q1. When compared to last year’s quarter, CBD office rates decreased from $21.62. 

CBD vacancy rates grew from 11.04% to 11.26%. They stood at 6.78% in 2019 Q3. Throughout 2021 Q3, the CBD vacancy rate is expected to increase to 11.32% next quarter. 

Office Sales Metrics (Cap Rates, Volume, Average Price PSF)

For investors, the cap rate during 2021 Q2 was 8.40%, compared to the previous quarter’s cap rate of 10.40%. The cap rate was 15.00% this quarter last year.

In terms of transaction volume, there were 52 sales transactions during the period. That’s a decrease compared to the 55 transactions in the previous period. Last year at this time, there were 48 transactions. In terms of transaction amounts, office transactions were valued at $138,374,304 in 2021 Q2. That’s an increase compared to $84,055,728 of transaction value in the previous period. Last year at this time, office transactions were valued at $55,831,960.

Industrial Leasing Metrics (Rates PSF, Vacancy)

Industrial leasing: For the Cincinnati, OH industrial sector, we look at warehouse and distribution spaces specifically. Overall warehouse and distribution base rent rates have increased by $0.07/SF. Rates went from $5.43 in 2021 Q1 to $5.50/SF in this most recent quarter. Warehouse and distribution rates grew in 2021 Q2 when compared to last year’s quarter, when industrial base rent was $5.30/SF.

Vacancy rates grew from 5.20% to 5.70%. Next quarter, the vacancy rate is expected to reach 5.90%.

Industrial Sales Metrics (Cap Rates, Volume)

For investors, the industrial cap rate during 2021 Q2 was 8.50%, compared to the previous quarter’s cap rate of 8.10%. The cap rate was 9.40% this quarter last year.

In terms of sales volume, industrial transactions were valued at $110,016,072 during the quarter. That’s a decrease compared to $150,530,128 of transaction value in the previous quarter. Last year at this time, industrial sales transactions totaled $128,616,696.