Economic and Demographic Update
Population: The population in Columbus in the 1Q of 2021 was 2,150,879. This represents an increase in total population of 18,457 over the course of the last year. During 2020 Q1, the Columbus population stood at 2,132,422. The number of people employed rose to 1,056,232 in 2021 Q1 from 1,043,690 over the last quarter, an increase of 12,542 or 1.20% for the period.
Median Income: The median household income for Columbus in the 1Q of 2021 was $70,133. At this time last year, the median household income was $68,052. 2021 Q1 median income represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.09% and a year-over-year increase of 3.06%. Columbus has a median household income greater than the U.S. average, which is $69,277.
Current and Historical Data Review (Rates PSF, Vacancy)
Office leasing: Overall office base rent rates have increased by $0.07/SF. Rates went from $14.95/SF in 2020 Q4 to $15.02/SF in this most recent quarter. Office rates grew in 2021 Q1 when compared to last year’s quarter, when office base rent was $14.49/SF.
Vacancy rates also went from 8.50% to 9.10%. They stood at 7.60% this time last year. Throughout Q2 2021, the vacancy rate is expected to change from 9.10% to 9.20%.
In the Columbus market’s central business district (CBD) specifically, 2021 Q1 base rents stood at $21.68/SF, an increase from $21.62/SF in 2020 Q4. When compared to last year’s quarter, CBD office rates decreased from $21.89.
CBD vacancy rates went from 7.83% to 7.97%. Throughout 2021 Q2, the CBD vacancy rate is expected to decrease to 7.96% next quarter.
Office Sales Metrics (Cap Rates, Volume, Average Price PSF)
For investors, the cap rate during 2021 Q1 was 7.70%, compared to the previous quarter’s cap rate of 7.80%. The cap rate was 8.30% this quarter last year.
In terms of transaction volume, there were 41 sales transactions during the period. That’s a decrease compared to the 65 transactions in the previous period. Last year at this time, there were 52 transactions. In terms of transaction amounts, office transactions were valued at $44,455,500 in 2020 Q3. That’s a decrease compared to $117,836,320 of transaction value in the previous period. Last year at this time, office transactions were valued at $131,439,680
Industrial Leasing Metrics (Rates PSF, Vacancy)
Industrial leasing: For the Columbus, OH industrial sector, we look at warehouse and distribution spaces specifically. Overall warehouse and distribution base rent rates have increased by $0.15/SF. It went from $5.34 in 2020 Q4 to $5.49/SF in this most recent quarter. Warehouse and distribution rates grew in 2021 Q1 when compared to last year’s quarter, when industrial base rent was $5.29/SF.
In 2021 Q1, the industrial market grew in Columbus by 2.80% versus 2020 Q4.
Warehouse and distribution vacancy rates decreased from 6.30% to 5.50%. Next quarter, the vacancy rate is expected to reach 6.00%.
Industrial Sales Metrics (Cap Rates, Volume)
For investors, the industrial cap rate during 2021 Q1 stayed the same as last quarter at 7.40%. The cap rate was 7.30% this quarter last year.
In terms of sales volume, industrial transactions were valued at $294,920,384 during the quarter. That’s a decrease compared to $388,889,600 of transaction value in the previous quarter. Last year at this time, industrial sales transactions totaled $168,427,504.
