Economic and Demographic Update
Population: The population in Cincinnati in the 3Q of 2022 was 2,240,582. This represents an increase in total population of 3,315 over the course of the last year. During 2021 Q3, the Cincinnati population stood at 2,237,267. The number of people employed rose to 1,108,817 in 2022 Q3 from 1,100,021 over the last quarter, an increase of 8,796 or 0.80% for the period.
Median Income: The median household income for Cincinnati in the 3Q of 2022 was $75,388. At this time last year, the median household income was $69,539. 2022 Q3 median income represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.73% and a year-over-year increase of 8.41%. Cincinnati has a median household income greater than the U.S. average, which is $74,848.
Current and Historical Data Review (Rates PSF, Vacancy)
Office leasing: Overall office base rent rates have increased by $0.19/SF. They went from $14.46/SF in 2022 Q2 to $14.65/SF in this most recent quarter. Office rates grew in 2022 Q3 when compared to last year's quarter, when office base rent was $14.32/SF.
Vacancy rates went from 10.80% to 10.71% quarter over quarter. They stood at 10.93% this time last year. The vacancy rate is expected to change from 10.71% to 10.50% next quarter.
In the Cincinnati market’s central business district (CBD) specifically, 2022 Q3 base rents stood at $21.42/SF, an increase from $21.33/SF in 2022 Q2. When compared to last year’s quarter, CBD office rates decreased from $21.50.
CBD vacancy rates went from 11.99% to 12.72% quarter over quarter. The CBD vacancy rate is expected to increase to 12.74% next quarter.
Office Sales Metrics (CAP Rates, Volume, Average Price PSF)
For investors, the cap rate during 2022 Q3 was 7.40%, compared to the previous quarter's cap rate of 7.50%. The cap rate was 7.00% this quarter last year.
In terms of transaction volume, there were 71 sales transactions during the period. That's a slight decrease compared to the 72 transactions in the previous period. Last year at this time, there were 79 transactions. In terms of transaction amounts, office transactions were valued at $105,439,992 in 2022 Q3. That's an increase compared to $61,431,472 of transaction value in the previous period. Last year at this time, office transactions were valued at $69,262,720.
Industrial Leasing Metrics (Rates PSF, Vacancy)
Industrial leasing: For the Cincinnati, OH industrial sector, we look at warehouse and distribution spaces specifically. Overall industrial base rent rates have increased by $0.19/SF. They went from $6.21 in 2022 Q2 to $6.40/SF in this most recent quarter. Warehouse and distribution rates grew in 2022 Q3 when compared to last year's quarter, when industrial base rent was $5.69/SF.
In 2022 Q3, the industrial market rent rates grew in Cincinnati by 3.10% versus 2022 Q2. Vacancy rates went from 3.00% to 3.10%. Next quarter, the vacancy rate is expected to reach 3.20%.
Industrial Sales Metrics (CAP Rates, Volume)
In terms of sales volume, industrial transactions were valued at $95,005,080 during the quarter. That's a decrease compared to $231,513,360 of transaction value in the previous quarter. Last year at this time, industrial sales transactions totaled $224,155,728.
